BOA, Ray Dalio, Charlie Munger, Grantham, Dent, Gundlach, and Wesbury are all bearish, and it seems that no one is listening – price will tell us in time.

S&P500 lows for the bear market 2022/2023
This is not trading or investment advice – this is educational information using the Algo Futures Trader 8 swing pivots indicator for NinjaTrader 8 on a weekly chart to derive levels from the AFT Swing Pivots Indicator and the built-in NinjaTrader 8 Fib Retracement drawing tool. To get your copy for free, visit Downloads.

Price action will tell us what the market does – that is the only single source of truth – market price. However, we can project levels of historical price points for a view of where the market might go to and bounce or break, and this provides additional analysis and clarity of the bigger picture.

• S1) 3639 current support from initial leg down.
• S2) 3450 retrace and then down to the 50% level from the COVID era low to high.
• S3) 3200/3100/3000 pre-COVID high as a significant bubble deflation level.
• For a bubble burst, we will know within 6 months.
• S4) 2700/2680 76.8% retrace.
• S5) 2600/2500 figure
  • 2600 is a 50% retrace from the low of 2009 to the high of 2020.
• For a super bubble meltdown – COVID Low
• S6) 2200
• S7) 2100/2000 – 2100 is a 61.8% retrace from the low of 2009 to the high of 2020 and COVID low.
• For the all-time super bubble super meltdown
  • S8) 1700/1600 – 2016 Zone pre-Trump rally.

Looking at the Monthly Chart S&P500 Levels of Support

• 2600 – the 50% retracement from the low of 2009 to the high of 2020 is the 2600 zone.
• 2100 and a 61.8% retracement and COVID low – what a combo!
• Below this, the Pre-Trump Rally Levels 1600 zone.

Summary of Levels

• Retest bounce or break current swing low support level of 3639.
• Retest of the 50% retrace of COVID low to all-time high – 3450.
• Below this, a 61% retrace and pullback COVID rally bull flag base – 3200.
• It is conceivable a flash down and bounce at 2000/2500 levels could occur.
• Time will tell via price action – that is the one single truth of all opinions.

A Day Trader’s Perspective

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