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US Economics the failure of reciprocal tariffs and tax policy on the US system is not the end of the road alternatives do exist

June 17, 2025 by AFT

Re-shoring Tariffs, Globalization & the Limits of U.S. Industrial Policy


1. Globalization: the “Monster” the West Created

To tell the full story, we could start at Bretton Woods: the U.S.-led security umbrella, containment of the Soviet Union, spread of global bases, the gold-exchange standard, the cost of Vietnam, the dawn of dollarisation, bond-market creation, and the unprecedented post-war boom that peaked globally—at least for the non-rogue world—in 2019.
Add the first U.S.–China trade war, COVID-era supply-chain shocks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, dollar-weaponisation backfires, Europe’s power-price spiral under sanctions, and today’s reciprocal “MAGA-tariff” economics, and you have a sweeping political journey from the fall of one empire to the rise of others.

For brevity, let’s fast-forward to 2000 and examine corporate-driven globalism—the relentless search for profit, a one-way journey not easily reversed by policy alone.

Since 2000 Western multinationals have chased ever-lower production costs by offshoring to emerging economies that sweeten the deal with:

  • Cheaper labour (often magnified by deliberate currency depreciation).
  • Light-touch corporate tax—typically 0–17 %, versus ≈30 % in the U.S. and ≈50 % in much of Europe.
  • Tax holidays on reinvested profits.

The result is a web of supply chains where production occurs abroad while profits accumulate in low-tax jurisdictions, hollowing out mid- and low-value U.S. manufacturing.

2. Trump-Era Tariff Logic

The Trump strategy tries to offset revenue lost to individual tax cuts with extra tariff receipts and to nudge production back onshore. In practice, the U.S. faces two powerful counter-forces:

StakeholderWhat they gain from the status quo
Globalized host countriesJobs, FDI, and local tax revenue.
Multinationals
(many U.S.-owned)
Lower unit costs and reduced tax bills, boosting global margins.

3. Domestic Constraints on “Made in America”

  1. Industrial mix
    Industrial Production Index (base 2000 = 100, nominal dollars):

    • Overall: 103.8 (+0.15 % CAGR)
    • Durables: 124.3 (+0.91 % CAGR)
    • Non-durables: 93.2 (–0.27 % CAGR)

    The U.S. now specialises in high-value, high-margin goods (≈16–18 % profit after tax). Lower-margin segments left long ago.

  2. Labour market
    • 69.6 % of the labour force holds some college or a bachelor’s degree+ (up from 58 % in 2000).
    • Unemployment hovers at 4 %. Skilled workers are expensive and scarce—ill-suited to low-value assembly.
  3. Exchange-rate drift (Jan 2008 → Jun 2025)
Currency vs USDDepreciationEffect on U.S. cost comparison
Mexican peso+85 %Wage bill looks almost half in USD terms.
Indian rupee+92 %Similar dynamic.
Euro+28 %Competitive edge versus U.S. plants.
CAD, GBP, JPY, CNY(comparable moves)

4. What the U.S. Imports — and From Where

2015 → 2024 Census/BEA data

Fastest-growing import lines (CAGR):

  1. Finished metal shapes 12.4 %
  2. Nuclear fuel 10.3 %
  3. Pharmaceuticals 9.6 %
  4. Bakery goods 9.5 %
  5. Electric apparatus 8.6 %

Highest-value categories (share of 2024 import bill):

RankCategoryShare
1Pharmaceuticals8.0 %
2Passenger cars (new & used)7.0 %
3Crude oil5.5 %
………
12Semiconductors2.7 %

5. Realistic Re-shoring Targets

Candidate sectorTariff leverPractical hurdles
AutomobilesRaise duties on non-U.S. builds; court re-investment in U.S. plants.Canada & Mexico are assembly hubs; matching their wage-plus-FX edge at home requires hefty subsidies.
Generic drugsPenalise imports from Ireland & India; subsidise domestic API/formulation plants.Multi-year FDA ramp-up and higher chem-ops labour costs versus Asia.
Other categoriesLimited impactElectronics, apparel, toys: supply chains and cost gaps are too entrenched.

6. AEI’s Profit-Repatriation Proposal

Treat foreign-made goods of U.S. firms as if produced at home.

  1. Import at cost (e.g., iPhone lands at $100, not $120).
  2. U.S. entity marks up to retail ($120) and pays U.S. tax on the $20 profit.
  3. Production stays abroad, but the tax base shifts homeward.

Feasible—yet politically delicate and administratively complex. Implementation would be incremental and face WTO scrutiny.

7. Revenue Reality Check

Early White-House talk of $200–300 bn in extra tariff revenue is implausible. Even aggressive levies can:

  • Modestly trim the trade gap (offset by higher consumer prices).
  • Slightly lift corporate-tax collections via on-shored margin or AEI-style adjustments.

They cannot fully backfill the revenue lost to sweeping income-tax cuts.

8. Takeaways

  • Tariffs can tilt specific industries but cannot reverse two decades of off-shoring economics.
  • Durable gains hinge on industrial strategy—subsidies, skills, energy costs—more than on blunt tariff weapons.
  • The AEI approach—taxing profits where the consumer resides—could claw back revenue without forcing impossible cost realities onto U.S. factories.
  • Expect incremental wins (autos, selected generics) rather than a rapid, across-the-board manufacturing renaissance.

Bottom line: Tariffs alone are a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. They can score tactical victories, but restoring broad-based industrial capacity demands a wider policy toolkit—tax reform, workforce development, and strategic sector incentives—balanced against global supply-chain realities.

The American system has always self-regulated; the real lever is monetary. Operate through the Federal Reserve to curb some of the dollar’s overvaluation and claw back part of other currencies’ devaluation—a tall order, but crucial, given that U.S. capital markets remain the world’s most attractive for both stocks and bonds. Still, higher rates are required to keep bond auctions clearing—a vicious circle.

Regulating trade by country misses the mark. Policy should target specific sectors within countries, coupled with incentives to re-shore a manageable slice of imports—cars and pharma are viable; others are not. At best, tariff parity may nudge exports higher. Multinational lobbies will still wield outsized influence; professionals are needed at the helm.

America has massive expertise and brain power waiting to provide solutions, and this is largely ignored or censored out by the media or agencies or is not part of the political agenda and team, but the solutions are there, if the eminent sources of intelligence are tapped-  in time, they maybe and the market waits for clarity.

For us as traders, understanding the global context of the system and market,  the systemic levers—why markets oscillate between risk-on and risk-off—is vital, regardless of the daily spectacle in Washington, left or right- it’s irrelevant; Rates the current hurdle, sticky inflation, and chaotic policy makers – certainty and uncertainty are the 2 drivers of the market phase.

Filed Under: Algo Futures Trader Tagged With: market economics


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AFT8 AWT Signals Indicator datafeed via AWT Desktop fixes

June 15, 2025 by AFT

AFT8 Workspaces 3 Session Open Breakout Trading Charts for Emini micro indices futures
AFT8 Workspaces 3 Session Open Breakout Trading Charts for Emini micro indices futures
AFT8 Workspaces 3 Session Open Breakout Trading Charts for Emini micro indices futures

Some traders may have encountered a glitch that blocked the data download required for AFT Workspaces 3 to show AWT data. Follow these steps to resolve it:

  1. Restart AWT Desktop – it will self-update.
  2. If your antivirus blocks the update, re-run the ATS Desktop Apps Installer to avoid warnings.
  3. Select Tools > Purge & Sync. This downloads the data AFT AWT Signals Indicator needs.
  4. WAIT UNTIL the sync finishes, scroll down to see, 1min to  15mins depending where you are !
  5. Restart NinjaTrader 8 so AFT picks up the new data (only necessary if you use the AFT-AWT Link / Workspace 3). – make sure it all looks are per the chart screenshot – you might need to restart if not…   send to support any logs/traces of errors if need be.
AWT Desktop – Purge & Sync data

AWT Desktop – Purge & Sync data – downloads and syncs all cloud data for the AWT API link to AFT8

Filed Under: Algo Futures Trader Tagged With: AlphaWebTrader


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Why big deficits and wobbly bond auctions make rate-cuts tricky

June 10, 2025 by AFT

1. Washington’s IOU pile is huge—and still growing.
Public debt has topped $36 trillion and keeps rising faster than tax revenue. Each 1-point jump in rates now adds roughly $360 billion a year to federal interest costs. jec.senate.gov

2. The Treasury has to sell a lot of bonds every week.
When bidders line up, yields stay contained. But recent auctions have been erratic:

DateMaturityBid-to-cover*Market take-away
Apr 9 ’2510-yr2.67 (strong)Demand looked healthy. reuters.com
May 6 ’2510-yr2.43Weaker, small “tail.” treasurydirect.gov
May 21 ’2520-yr2.20Investors cautious after deficit-driven tariff news. reuters.com
Jun 12 ’25 (this week)30-yrWatch listAnalysts call it a “crucial test” of appetite. businessinsider.com

*Higher is better; 2.5–3.0 is considered solid.

3. What this means for the Fed

  • Cuts aren’t off-limits, but they’re harder.

    • The Fed targets the overnight fed-funds rate, not auction yields. Legally it can still ease if growth falters.

    • Reality check: Large issuance plus shaky demand pushes long-term yields up. If the Fed slashed short-term rates into that headwind, mortgage and corporate borrowing costs might stay high anyway—and inflation expectations could drift higher, undercutting the whole point of easing.

  • High rates help keep buyers interested.
    Foreign central banks and big pension funds want a real (after-inflation) return. With deficits ballooning, investors demand a premium. Cutting too soon risks a buyers’ strike that would force the Treasury to pay even higher coupons—exactly what policymakers want to avoid.

  • Balance-sheet politics are back.
    Every rate cut shaves income on the Fed’s $7 trillion bond portfolio, which already remits no profit to Treasury. Optics matter when Congress is fretting over the interest tab.

4. Bottom line

Until either (a) deficits shrink or (b) global demand for Treasuries firms up, the Fed will likely stick to a “higher-for-longer” stance—or, at most, cut very gingerly—to avoid stoking inflation and scaring off bond buyers. In practice, the bond market’s appetite is acting as a leash on how far and how fast policy can ease.

Citations

jec.senate.gov
Monthly-Debt-Update-website.knit – Joint Economic Committee
June 2025 | Released June 06, 2025. Growth of the national debt. As of June 04, 2025, total gross national debt is $36.21 trillion. Debt held by the public is …

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reuters.com

US Treasury 10-year note auction outcome shows strong demand
April 8, 2025 — The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.67, the highest since December, solidly above the 2.53 average. Indirect bidders, which …

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treasurydirect.gov

[PDF] PDF – TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS
May 6, 2025 — May 06, 2025. 202-504-3550. TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS. Term and Type of Security. 10-Year Note. CUSIP Number. 91282CNC1. Series. C-2035. Interest …

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reuters.com

Tepid demand for US Treasury auction shows investor jitters about …
May 20, 2025 — Longer-dated Treasuries took the brunt of bond market weakness after Trump on April 2 announced larger-than-expected tariffs on trading partners …

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businessinsider.com

The market has a big opportunity to tell Trump what it thinks about his big tax bill
Today — This week’s U.S. Treasury auction of 30-year bonds is being closely watched as a critical test of market sentiment toward President Donald Trump’s

Filed Under: Algo Futures Trader


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As of 2025 why are these economic releases more relevant Jobs report and personal income than inflation news?

June 10, 2025 by AFT

1. Why we watch these two reports as traders and market participants?

ReportWhen it’s releasedWhy it matters
Jobs Report (average weekly pay, number of workers)Early each monthShows how much people earn and how many are employed.
Personal Income & Spending (income, spending, savings)End of each monthReveals whether consumers are still opening their wallets.

Because consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of America’s economy, these two reports are crucial for both markets and the Fed.


2. What the latest jobs data (May 25 release) tells us

  • Paychecks are rising for all workers, including supervisors and non-supervisors.
  • More people are working. Total employment is up about 2 percent from a year ago.
  • With pay rising and more people employed, overall household income is still growing, even after accounting for inflation.

Translation: The Fed sees no emergency to slash rates—the labor market is strong enough to keep spending afloat.


3. But people don’t necessarily feel rich

  • Year-over-year pay growth per person (about 1 percent) is much smaller than total payroll growth (over 2 percent).
  • Consumers remember last year’s soft patch and worry that new import tariffs could drive prices up again.
  • That combination makes shoppers cautious—they’ll buy mid-priced items or only replace what’s worn out.

4. A quick look at U.S. factory output

Industrial production indexes (2000 = 100)

Sector2000Dec 2019Apr 2025Take-away
Food & drink100109106Slightly above 2000, but down from the pre-COVID peak.
Textiles1004335Long-term decline.
Apparel1001815Even steeper slide.
Plastics & rubber1009191Flat.
Metals1008582till below 2000.
Furniture1006854Down sharply since 2000.

Big picture:

  • Offshoring: Much U.S. manufacturing has moved abroad.
  • Tariffs backfire: Broad import taxes can raise prices without boosting domestic jobs.

5. Implications for the Fed and markets

  1. No rush to cut rates: Strong jobs and income growth don’t justify an emergency rate cut.
  2. Tariff concerns: Higher import taxes could fuel inflation, reducing real incomes if rates stay high.
  3. Consumer caution: Spending continues, but savers are rebuilding buffers, which keeps equity gains in check.
  4. Supply-chain strain: Trade tensions risk inflating costs, denting exports and tax revenues.
  5. High public debt: Elevated debt levels constrain the Fed’s ability to cut rates without undermining bond demand.

Bottom line:

  • Consumers remain the economy’s backbone—but they’re spending more cautiously.
  • Inflation is no news, locked in with tariffs affecting domestic production costs, tax revenues, and GDP reduced,
  • public debt at record highs – bond auctions must be attractive Fed Rates need to be high to bail out debt
  • Expect steady, measured growth rather than a big boom, or stagflation, especially if tariff-driven inflation flares up.
  • Equity rallies or sell-offs are likely to be muted until there’s greater clarity on trade policy and rate paths.

Filed Under: Algo Futures Trader


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AFT8 Risk Management Position Sizing Introduction

June 4, 2025 by AFT

Position sizing is fundamentally a risk‐management technique, though it’s often grouped under the broader umbrella of money management, because it determines how much capital is exposed to the market on each trade. In AFT8, static position sizing sets a fixed number of contracts (Lots) regardless of market conditions. In contrast, dynamic position sizing uses a fixed-fractional method to adjust the number of contracts based on factors such as volatility, account equity, or predefined risk parameters.

By configuring and calibrating trade size to the amount you’re willing to lose, based on your stop size and the number of lots per trade, total trade risk is directly controlled. If the market moves against you, position sizing enforces consistent per‐trade risk limits. In that sense, while it informs your overarching money‐management plan (i.e., how much capital you allocate overall), its primary role is to enforce consistent risk limits, making position sizing a cornerstone of effective risk management; stop‐loss/risk management is the complementary component.

Why use dynamic position sizing instead of a static lot size?
Instruments differ in point/tick value or volatility, so, for example, 3 lots on NQ might equate to 12 lots on RTY to achieve the same trade‐risk exposure. To maintain equal weighting when trading multiple instruments, the lot size must be adjusted so that each trade carries the same risk in cash or as a percentage of trade‐risk capital. By tracking volatility, a system can maintain a constant risk per trade: position size decreases when volatility is high and increases when volatility is low.

Ways to Change Position Size with AFT8

It’s very easy to view, edit, set, change, and configure position size and risk management within AFT8 after some exploration. Settings can be configured and saved along with workspaces.

  1. NinjaTrader 8: Use Chart Trader, Order Ticket, or DOM to set the quantity for manual entries. This is static position sizing and can be adjusted at any time, up or down in real-time.
  2. AFT8 Algo Entry Module: In the Market Analyzer column, parameters for the Algo Entry Module, you can define static or fixed‐fractional position sizing. Templates can be viewed, edited, and saved under a unique name, usually for set-and-forget settings.
  3. AFT8 Algo Entry Controller: The pop‐up controller can be configured for static, fixed lots per trade or to leverage advanced risk‐management features such as fixed‐fractional sizing and institutional money‐management patterns like fund‐of‐funds for trading with asset streams- settings can be changed in real-time on the fly.

Note: Turnkey Workspaces 1 provides only the Trade Manager module, so quantity is configured via the NinjaTrader components. From Turnkey Workspace 2 onward, the Algo Entry Module/Controller allows quantity to be set and saved directly in the AFT8 settings.

TIP: Remember to save your settings templates and workspace under a unique name to prevent losing changes during updates!

For full details, please visit this ATS Help Desk article  on AFT8 Risk Management Position Sizing

Filed Under: Algo Futures Trader, NinjaTrader 8, ninjatrader algorithmic trading, ninjatrader automated trading


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AFT8 version 2025.2.4.1 update released prior AFT8 versions expire in 7 days

February 3, 2025 by AFT

AFT8 version 2025.2.4.1 installer

AFT8 Version 2025.2.4.1 Update Released

Please note:

  • This is an emergency release to resolve some threading issues with the AWT API link. The loading of historical data affected some machines, but not all.
  • The AWT 150 indicator is disabled in this version.
  • License rules now enforced

Prior Version 2024.6

  • If you are still on the old version 2024.6, this version adds new functions and features and is slicker and smoother.
  • The prior version will expire on Sunday, 9th, and will auto shutdown NT8 on startup to install the new version.

More details will be released and available in the Discord group.

1) Upgrade from Your Existing Downloads

  1. Close down NinjaTrader.
  2. Go to your downloads folder: “Downloads\AlgoTradingSystems”.
  3. Locate and run the setup installer: AlgoFuturesTrader8-Installer-Setup.
  4. This will get the latest version from the cloud and install it correctly, as long as your NinjaTrader path has not changed.
  5. Start NT8 and open the workspace as usual.

2) ATS Account Downloads

  • Log in to your account and view downloads here: https://account.algotradingsystems.net/Secure/Downloads
  • Download and run the primary installer: AlgoFuturesTrader8-Installer-Setup.

3) AFT8 Update Pop-Up

  • Wait for a pop-up and click install.

Any Issues? Please Contact Us at the Help Desk!

  • https://algotradingsystems.net/Help

Subscription Upgrades!

  • Buy Now, Pay Later: ATS works with Affirm and Klarna, offering interest-free installment payment plans—available on annual and one-time lifetime licenses.
  • Limited Slots Available: Subscribers affected are invited to upgrade and get a discounted slot to become a VIP Full Member.

Trader Success Team!
To get more information on pricing and payment methods, simply book a FREE pricing discovery meeting with Trader Success VIP with no obligation to purchase!
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Filed Under: Algo Futures Trader, NinjaTrader 8 Tagged With: AFT8, AFT8 update, AFT8Update


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AlgoFuturesTrader.com is owned & operated by Algo Trading Systems LLC. By using this website or products & services, you are bound by our Terms & subject to US legal jurisdiction only. Errors & omissions excluded.
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