Archives for March 2021

I’m quite concerned by the current landscape due to COVID and for new traders who want this to work as they “need” income from it… So, I thought I would write this after my coffee which was maybe too strong and made me write way too much but here goes.  Managing expectations here is the key to what i’m writing to save people in a rush coming to harm financially.   It can be done and there are some safer more probable ways and some that will lead to failure.

Trading cannot be rushed for this reason AFT8 is 100% free for day trading futures for sim, demo, replay and evaluation trading so that there is no rush and no penalty for learning – no pressure…   

For traders with a small amount of risk capital there is an answer AFT  is the Free NinjaTrader futures day trading system for evaluation to get funded trading with Trade2Earn, OneUpTrader, Top Step trader and Lee Loo Trading.

Many new traders are taking trading more seriously as an alternative income as many small business owners are forced to look elsewhere due to the recession of foot traffic. On top of this in the USA stimulus checks and the success of many new retail traders who put that money to use in the market typically in stocks and options news have made it sound as if trading is the answer to lost revenues.

For people most this is not the case at all. If you are in the position where you lost your income and can’t survive from savings or alternative incomes to a main job income – putting the pressure on yourself to beat the market and use that as your main income is very likely for new traders, impossible or destined to fail in most cases, or perhaps destined to work for a while as it can be super easy and then as the market goes into a different phase, things go wrong and then the trader will get a terrible kicking from the market.  The psychological strain is the thing that will exasperate the losses and actions of the trader. Trading is the last thing to be considered as a revenue replacement, with the last of savings money, with no other revenues, risk capital is capital you can lose, savings when you are jobless are not risk capital unless you got a big stash of cash ok fair enough.. do it small.

But…. if you get funded by a 3rd party to trade then you can in fact be directed to have discipline and risk someone else’s money that’s a lot better. They wont let you hurt them badly and its a mutual benefit but one way risk, but no one gets hurt  – risk control is all in place.

It’s perfectly normal for all traders to lose, I had my terrible kicking from the market when I started and many, many, many more later all for a reason and noted so i could learn from it eventually and not repeat the past mistakes. I learned to respect the market and I’m not over confident, usually, – success is tied to price cycles and news cycles and so forth -Risk on, Risk Off recognizing when to sit out and when to get in and most of all a system to enter to exit, to control risk, all implemented within a routine and set of rules. A systematic approach helps chances of success. The market is like the sea one that can be fished and traversed or one that will kill or maroon you. With the right amount of time you can see this and the conditions of low probability and high probability to trade in – knowing when to trade is a key most traders over look and are too busy trading to learn how to trade.

So perhaps the way to treat day trading futures safely and realistically is to do it part time as a hobby that can lead to something more serious over time and not to rush it, expecting this to be our main revenue stream as soon as possible is a very hard thing to do and will put enormous psychological strain on your trading – and may lead to a loss of faith and then you might embark on hopping from system to another in desperate search of the holy grail. I have known people do this for 10 years and are still looking yet the answer was the same on day 1 yet they lack the insight to see it or are taken away by live money trading and led away by emotions and subconscious habits that sabotage them  – in fact its simple just by using the right approach to conquer themselves is to conquer the market  -but it takes a whole lot of dedicated focus and a routine.     

Trading can be super easy and super tricky and useless this does not mean the system is broken. Like a boat in a sea there are times when a system will excel and times when it won’t – learn to see conditional setups on higher time frame daily, weekly price analysis, structure, price cycles and time/news cycles and then trade with the commercial directional movement wave and use the trading system to enter at a pragmatic time and price and then surf it – simple to say and sometimes not so easy to pull off.

Why would launch a boat when there is no wind or when the waves will wreck you etc…? This is why we provide controls to interact and control the systems – look to when it’s a good enough place and time to let the system off and then be ready to stop it with rules or actions later.

The one solution for all US indices day traders of any experience is this:

• Religiously be in attendance at 9am or 8.30am each morning
• look at the prior sessions and look to daily/weekly charts to see what the market did across the majors.
• Note structure and support levels and trend for later use as break points or bounce etc
• You must watch the first 1 hour of the NYSE every day without exception as your routine
• Overall you need 1000s of market hours to really get into the machine and understand its nuances and behaviors.

Trading is a game and surely it’s better than Xbox and Nintendo, adult space invaders I like to call it but it can hurt in reality. Trading is a business but get good at the game and monies follow, don’t trade focused for money or every loss and win will be an emotional attachment and lead to failure.   Trade to get good stats and be good at trading focus on the game.  Rules to control and limit your risk and exposure and stay alive are critical, trade less 1 to 3 signals per instrument per session for a maximum of 3 hours per day – don’t let the market control you. For a session breakout trading system you will be getting in as early as possible and looking to run the trade and then stop… 35% to 65% win ratio is typical with risk reward up  to 1:10 on a trade target and beyond.

If you are trend scalper or momentum trader you will likely need to maintain a 85% win ratio to 90% and even above and be prepared to take 10 to 25 or more trades per session -scalping 8 ticks and risking 28 ticks on the ES for example – so to be successful you need to wait for the market to show its moving in a cyclical trending fashion with momentum and follow through before entering the market with a system, so you might have to sit around all day or sit out for days on end sometimes – 1 loss will cost you 4 trades or more to get back to break even etc.

That scalping can be fun and I’ve known people average 95% and make it look easy but that’s not something that appeals to me, and we are not pushing that model but the technology will allow you work in that manner it’s a matter of configuration. Ultimately that scalping doesn’t fit me or my persona, I have a life somewhere I think and can’t afford to wait around, I can’t think of anything worse im an active person, i used to scalp badly and  I used just a Dom – every tick counted, that was plain crazy and overwhelming to all life, like an addiction -so for me the healthy option is do less and do it better and feel better all around. Stopping that style of trading and Inventing the Fib Grid system was the answer for me as it limited the amount of trading I need to do and limited the amount of entry signals – and let me run the trade. So Instead of being a trading addict and glued to the screen for each tick for 12 hours per day or more emotionally tied to each win or loss. Now I can do it in minutes or a few hours at most for the main part emotion free with no need to second guess change course or interfere.

So, what it boils down to then is I watch the key moments of interest – the NYSE session open and try to capitalize on the repetitive market behaviors with an edge provided by the system and other items such as trend correlation and structure on my side. Even better and easier for me I like to surf the Sunday open to the Friday close and get 100% of the move if I can and sometime, I do and that is the real score for me if it happens but it’s rare. Every day trading must be completed within a ruleset and all emotions and psychological life pressures must be removed and overall, the correct risk capital and position size must be implemented – I would recommend less than 1% even per trade. but ideally you need 2 to 3 lots on micro futures to really make life easier. So then look to funding providers to fill your account as a possibility to your savings – for me I don’t like their drawdown rules or the feeling of having a boss, so I prefer self-funding.

So in summary – trading is simple but not easy. if it’s too important your dream, your desperate need please don’t think trading is the answer a salary job or recurring income with no risk is the answer. The main times I have really screwed up and literally been on the floor in pain holding my guts screaming at myself due to over trading and losses was when it means too much, and I needed it too bad as I desperately want to change my life due to some horrific job or relationship – money is the cure for all right? The other time I have really given it back was when trading with the flu or being over tired hungover. so, avoid pressure and do it when you are on top form -relaxed… super trader mentality at all time or take the day off.

Get good at trading put the hours in and keep it as a part time hobby then over time make it more serious if chance reveals itself.. don’t rush in and see this as the solution to all your problems it can make them 1000 times worse. if you are not careful, ill-disciplined and emotionally charged… by money…

If you are dead set on making this work as soon as possible ok go for it, but use funded trading capital don’t blow up your savings folks…  check out these providers: Trade2Earn, OneUpTrader, Top Step trader and Lee Loo Trading.

Learning when to trade with the system is the focus not the money.  So we will try to make this as easy as possible for as many as possible to realize their trading goals and aspirations but folks nothing is a get rich quick scheme or guaranteed, now back to coding i hope some of that made sense and resonated.

Tom

Plug and Trade – Turnkey Trading Systems for day trading futures

Simply Install, Connect. Learn and practice with ready to use turnkey settings and workspaces for Session Open Breakout trading and Trend Trading reversal and pullback continuation trading. Start NinjaTrader, connect to a futures data feed & open an AFT Turnkey workspace, the trading systems will appear on chart and are ready for simulator trading micro equity Index futures.

1. Get NinjaTrader & a datafeed
2. Download & install AFT
3. Get started day trading with AFT