NinjaTrader Automated Trading by Algo Futures Trader

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Why big deficits and wobbly bond auctions make rate-cuts tricky

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1. Washington’s IOU pile is huge—and still growing.
Public debt has topped $36 trillion and keeps rising faster than tax revenue. Each 1-point jump in rates now adds roughly $360 billion a year to federal interest costs. jec.senate.gov

2. The Treasury has to sell a lot of bonds every week.
When bidders line up, yields stay contained. But recent auctions have been erratic:

DateMaturityBid-to-cover*Market take-away
Apr 9 ’2510-yr2.67 (strong)Demand looked healthy. reuters.com
May 6 ’2510-yr2.43Weaker, small “tail.” treasurydirect.gov
May 21 ’2520-yr2.20Investors cautious after deficit-driven tariff news. reuters.com
Jun 12 ’25 (this week)30-yrWatch listAnalysts call it a “crucial test” of appetite. businessinsider.com

*Higher is better; 2.5–3.0 is considered solid.

3. What this means for the Fed

  • Cuts aren’t off-limits, but they’re harder.

    • The Fed targets the overnight fed-funds rate, not auction yields. Legally it can still ease if growth falters.

    • Reality check: Large issuance plus shaky demand pushes long-term yields up. If the Fed slashed short-term rates into that headwind, mortgage and corporate borrowing costs might stay high anyway—and inflation expectations could drift higher, undercutting the whole point of easing.

  • High rates help keep buyers interested.
    Foreign central banks and big pension funds want a real (after-inflation) return. With deficits ballooning, investors demand a premium. Cutting too soon risks a buyers’ strike that would force the Treasury to pay even higher coupons—exactly what policymakers want to avoid.

  • Balance-sheet politics are back.
    Every rate cut shaves income on the Fed’s $7 trillion bond portfolio, which already remits no profit to Treasury. Optics matter when Congress is fretting over the interest tab.

4. Bottom line

Until either (a) deficits shrink or (b) global demand for Treasuries firms up, the Fed will likely stick to a “higher-for-longer” stance—or, at most, cut very gingerly—to avoid stoking inflation and scaring off bond buyers. In practice, the bond market’s appetite is acting as a leash on how far and how fast policy can ease.

Citations

jec.senate.gov
Monthly-Debt-Update-website.knit – Joint Economic Committee
June 2025 | Released June 06, 2025. Growth of the national debt. As of June 04, 2025, total gross national debt is $36.21 trillion. Debt held by the public is …

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reuters.com

US Treasury 10-year note auction outcome shows strong demand
April 8, 2025 — The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.67, the highest since December, solidly above the 2.53 average. Indirect bidders, which …

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treasurydirect.gov

[PDF] PDF – TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS
May 6, 2025 — May 06, 2025. 202-504-3550. TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS. Term and Type of Security. 10-Year Note. CUSIP Number. 91282CNC1. Series. C-2035. Interest …

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reuters.com

Tepid demand for US Treasury auction shows investor jitters about …
May 20, 2025 — Longer-dated Treasuries took the brunt of bond market weakness after Trump on April 2 announced larger-than-expected tariffs on trading partners …

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businessinsider.com

The market has a big opportunity to tell Trump what it thinks about his big tax bill
Today — This week’s U.S. Treasury auction of 30-year bonds is being closely watched as a critical test of market sentiment toward President Donald Trump’s

As of 2025 why are these economic releases more relevant Jobs report and personal income than inflation news?

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1. Why we watch these two reports as traders and market participants?

ReportWhen it’s releasedWhy it matters
Jobs Report (average weekly pay, number of workers)Early each monthShows how much people earn and how many are employed.
Personal Income & Spending (income, spending, savings)End of each monthReveals whether consumers are still opening their wallets.

Because consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of America’s economy, these two reports are crucial for both markets and the Fed.

2. What the latest jobs data (May 25 release) tells us

  • Paychecks are rising for all workers, including supervisors and non-supervisors.
  • More people are working. Total employment is up about 2 percent from a year ago.
  • With pay rising and more people employed, overall household income is still growing, even after accounting for inflation.

Translation: The Fed sees no emergency to slash rates—the labor market is strong enough to keep spending afloat.

3. But people don’t necessarily feel rich

  • Year-over-year pay growth per person (about 1 percent) is much smaller than total payroll growth (over 2 percent).
  • Consumers remember last year’s soft patch and worry that new import tariffs could drive prices up again.
  • That combination makes shoppers cautious—they’ll buy mid-priced items or only replace what’s worn out.

4. A quick look at U.S. factory output

Industrial production indexes (2000 = 100)

Sector2000Dec 2019Apr 2025Take-away
Food & drink100109106Slightly above 2000, but down from the pre-COVID peak.
Textiles1004335Long-term decline.
Apparel1001815Even steeper slide.
Plastics & rubber1009191Flat.
Metals1008582till below 2000.
Furniture1006854Down sharply since 2000.

Big picture:

  • Offshoring: Much U.S. manufacturing has moved abroad.
  • Tariffs backfire: Broad import taxes can raise prices without boosting domestic jobs.

5. Implications for the Fed and markets

  1. No rush to cut rates: Strong jobs and income growth don’t justify an emergency rate cut.
  2. Tariff concerns: Higher import taxes could fuel inflation, reducing real incomes if rates stay high.
  3. Consumer caution: Spending continues, but savers are rebuilding buffers, which keeps equity gains in check.
  4. Supply-chain strain: Trade tensions risk inflating costs, denting exports and tax revenues.
  5. High public debt: Elevated debt levels constrain the Fed’s ability to cut rates without undermining bond demand.

Bottom line:

  • Consumers remain the economy’s backbone—but they’re spending more cautiously.
  • Inflation is no news, locked in with tariffs affecting domestic production costs, tax revenues, and GDP reduced,
  • public debt at record highs – bond auctions must be attractive Fed Rates need to be high to bail out debt
  • Expect steady, measured growth rather than a big boom, or stagflation, especially if tariff-driven inflation flares up.
  • Equity rallies or sell-offs are likely to be muted until there’s greater clarity on trade policy and rate paths.

AFT8 Risk Management Position Sizing Introduction

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Position sizing is fundamentally a risk‐management technique, though it’s often grouped under the broader umbrella of money management, because it determines how much capital is exposed to the market on each trade. In AFT8, static position sizing sets a fixed number of contracts (Lots) regardless of market conditions. In contrast, dynamic position sizing uses a fixed-fractional method to adjust the number of contracts based on factors such as volatility, account equity, or predefined risk parameters.

By configuring and calibrating trade size to the amount you’re willing to lose, based on your stop size and the number of lots per trade, total trade risk is directly controlled. If the market moves against you, position sizing enforces consistent per‐trade risk limits. In that sense, while it informs your overarching money‐management plan (i.e., how much capital you allocate overall), its primary role is to enforce consistent risk limits, making position sizing a cornerstone of effective risk management; stop‐loss/risk management is the complementary component.

Why use dynamic position sizing instead of a static lot size?
Instruments differ in point/tick value or volatility, so, for example, 3 lots on NQ might equate to 12 lots on RTY to achieve the same trade‐risk exposure. To maintain equal weighting when trading multiple instruments, the lot size must be adjusted so that each trade carries the same risk in cash or as a percentage of trade‐risk capital. By tracking volatility, a system can maintain a constant risk per trade: position size decreases when volatility is high and increases when volatility is low.

Ways to Change Position Size with AFT8

It’s very easy to view, edit, set, change, and configure position size and risk management within AFT8 after some exploration. Settings can be configured and saved along with workspaces.

  1. NinjaTrader 8: Use Chart Trader, Order Ticket, or DOM to set the quantity for manual entries. This is static position sizing and can be adjusted at any time, up or down in real-time.
  2. AFT8 Algo Entry Module: In the Market Analyzer column, parameters for the Algo Entry Module, you can define static or fixed‐fractional position sizing. Templates can be viewed, edited, and saved under a unique name, usually for set-and-forget settings.
  3. AFT8 Algo Entry Controller: The pop‐up controller can be configured for static, fixed lots per trade or to leverage advanced risk‐management features such as fixed‐fractional sizing and institutional money‐management patterns like fund‐of‐funds for trading with asset streams- settings can be changed in real-time on the fly.

Note: Turnkey Workspaces 1 provides only the Trade Manager module, so quantity is configured via the NinjaTrader components. From Turnkey Workspace 2 onward, the Algo Entry Module/Controller allows quantity to be set and saved directly in the AFT8 settings.

TIP: Remember to save your settings templates and workspace under a unique name to prevent losing changes during updates!

For full details, please visit this ATS Help Desk article  on AFT8 Risk Management Position Sizing

AFT8 version 2025.2.4.1 update released prior AFT8 versions expire in 7 days

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AFT8 Version 2025.2.4.1 Update Released

Please note:

  • This is an emergency release to resolve some threading issues with the AWT API link. The loading of historical data affected some machines, but not all.
  • The AWT 150 indicator is disabled in this version.
  • License rules now enforced

Prior Version 2024.6

  • If you are still on the old version 2024.6, this version adds new functions and features and is slicker and smoother.
  • The prior version will expire on Sunday, 9th, and will auto shutdown NT8 on startup to install the new version.

More details will be released and available in the Discord group.

1) Upgrade from Your Existing Downloads

  1. Close down NinjaTrader.
  2. Go to your downloads folder: “Downloads\AlgoTradingSystems”.
  3. Locate and run the setup installer: AlgoFuturesTrader8-Installer-Setup.
  4. This will get the latest version from the cloud and install it correctly, as long as your NinjaTrader path has not changed.
  5. Start NT8 and open the workspace as usual.

2) ATS Account Downloads

3) AFT8 Update Pop-Up

  • Wait for a pop-up and click install.

Any Issues? Please Contact Us at the Help Desk!

Subscription Upgrades!

  • Buy Now, Pay Later: ATS works with Affirm and Klarna, offering interest-free installment payment plans—available on annual and one-time lifetime licenses.
  • Limited Slots Available: Subscribers affected are invited to upgrade and get a discounted slot to become a VIP Full Member.

Trader Success Team!
To get more information on pricing and payment methods, simply book a FREE pricing discovery meeting with Trader Success VIP with no obligation to purchase!
👉 TO Book Your Spot CLICK HERE!

new payment options for buying or leasing now include crypto bank transfer and buy now pay later plans for annual and lifetime

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New Payment Options for a New Trading World

Announcement: New payment options for buying or leasing now include crypto, bank transfer, and buy now, pay later plans for annual and lifetime subscriptions.

If an order requires a payment, the following payment methods are available at checkout:

  • Card
  • Apple Pay
  • Google Pay
  • Link
  • Klarna – Buy now, pay later for USA
  • ACH Direct Debit
  • Affirm – Buy now, pay later for USA
  • Cash App Pay
  • Crypto

Buy Now, Pay Later Illustrations

ATS.Premium.Yearly.OneTime

The subscription is for 1 year, and renewal is optional.

RRP: $1200 for 1 year – buy now and pay with installments from $200/month for 6 payments!

Illustration of available offers from Affirm:

  • 18 monthly payments of $74.86, 15.00% APR
  • 12 monthly payments of $108.31, 14.99% APR
  • 6 interest-free payments of $200.00
Affirm Buy Now Pay Later
Affirm Buy Now Pay Later – ATS.Premium.Yearly.OneTime
Affirm Buy Now Pay Later
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Trader Success Team!

To get more information on pricing and payment methods, simply book a FREE pricing discovery meeting with Trader Success VIP with no obligation to purchase!

👉 TO Book Your Spot CLICK HERE!

Mastering Trader Psychology and NLP: A Book List for Trading Success

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Mastering Trader Psychology and NLP


Mastering Trader Psychology and NLP

Trading is as much about mastering your mind as it is about analyzing markets. To thrive, traders need to overcome emotional hurdles, maintain discipline, and develop a winning mindset. This blog explores how trader psychology and Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP) can transform your approach—and provides a curated book list to guide you.

Why Psychology and NLP Matter in Trading

  1. The Psychological Battle
    • Fear, greed, and overconfidence derail even the best strategies.
    • Maintaining discipline in volatile markets requires mental resilience.
  2. The Role of NLP in Trading
    • NLP helps rewire thought patterns to eliminate self-sabotaging behaviors.
    • Techniques like visualization and affirmations enhance focus and confidence.

Top Books on Trader Psychology

1. “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas

This classic explores the mental framework behind consistent trading success. Douglas emphasizes understanding probabilities, managing emotions, and cultivating a winning mindset.

  • Key Takeaway: Develop a belief system that aligns with market realities.

2. “The Disciplined Trader” by Mark Douglas

Another masterpiece by Douglas, this book focuses on self-control and overcoming the psychological barriers that hinder profitability.

  • Key Takeaway: Discipline is the cornerstone of successful trading.

3. “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman

While not trading-specific, this book by a Nobel laureate delves into cognitive biases and decision-making processes that are crucial for traders.

  • Key Takeaway: Recognize and mitigate cognitive biases for better decisions.

4. “Mindset: The New Psychology of Success” by Carol S. Dweck

Dweck’s exploration of the growth mindset applies directly to trading, encouraging traders to view challenges and losses as opportunities to grow.

  • Key Takeaway: Embrace a mindset of learning and adaptability.

5. “Atomic Habits” by James Clear

Clear’s strategies for habit formation can help traders establish routines that foster consistent performance.

  • Key Takeaway: Small changes in habits lead to significant improvements.

6. “The Psychology of Trading” by Brett N. Steenbarger

This book combines trading psychology with practical techniques for improving performance. Steenbarger offers insights into managing stress and staying focused.

  • Key Takeaway: Treat trading as a performance activity and train accordingly.

Top Books on NLP for Traders

1. “NLP: The Essential Guide to Neuro-Linguistic Programming” by Tom Hoobyar, Tom Dotz, and Susan Sanders

This comprehensive guide explains how NLP techniques can reprogram your thought patterns and behaviors for success.

  • Key Takeaway: Use NLP to build confidence and eliminate fear in trading.

2. “Unlimited Power” by Tony Robbins

Robbins explores NLP techniques for achieving personal mastery. His teachings on focus, visualization, and anchoring are invaluable for traders.

  • Key Takeaway: Master your mental state to perform under pressure.

3. “Frogs into Princes” by Richard Bandler and John Grinder

Written by the co-founders of NLP, this book introduces the foundational principles of the discipline.

  • Key Takeaway: Change your internal dialogue to achieve peak performance.

4. “NLP for Beginners: An Idiot-Proof Guide to Neuro-Linguistic Programming” by Shlomo Vaknin

This beginner-friendly book is perfect for traders new to NLP. It explains practical tools to improve focus, confidence, and decision-making.

  • Key Takeaway: Simple NLP techniques can create powerful mental shifts.

5. “The Secrets of Successful Trading: The Behavioral Edge” by Branden Lee

A unique blend of trading psychology and NLP, this book helps traders align their subconscious behaviors with their goals.

  • Key Takeaway: Behavioral alignment is key to trading success.

Applying Psychology and NLP in Trading

  1. Develop Subconscious Competence
    • Repetition and structured drills transform conscious strategies into automatic responses.
  2. Master Emotional Regulation
    • Use mindfulness techniques and NLP tools like anchoring to stay calm under pressure.
  3. Adopt a Growth Mindset
    • View losses as opportunities to refine your approach, not as failures.
  4. Create and Reinforce Habits
    • Establish daily routines that support disciplined trading.

The ATS Edge: Neuro Linguistic Trading

Our Zero to Hero Program incorporates trading psychology and NLP principles into a 360-degree framework called Neuro Linguistic Trading (NLT). By combining structured repetition, automated systems, and tailored mentorship, ATS helps traders:

  • Build mental resilience.
  • Internalize effective habits.
  • Achieve subconscious competence for faster, instinctive decisions.

Conclusion

Mastering trader psychology and NLP is essential for consistent trading success. Whether you’re battling emotional swings or striving for peak performance, the books listed here offer invaluable insights and tools. Combine these lessons with ATS’s Neuro Linguistic Trading approach, and you’ll be well on your way to transforming your trading journey.